Harvesting Harmony. Powering Portfolios.

Are you quantifying your renewable portfolio diversity?

In the realm of renewable energy investments, accurately gauging annual production probabilities for an entire portfolio can be a complex endeavor. Many investors and asset owners instead default to a straightforward method of aggregating the probabilities of exceedance of individual projects (P75, P90, etc.) This is a mistake, however, and results in an overestimation of portfolio uncertainty! The key insight, often missed, is that production variability between projects is not perfectly correlated. For example, a low production year for a wind farm in Iowa may be offset by a high production year for a solar farm in California. By accounting for the interplay of these project-level uncertainties, it is possible to significantly narrow the overall uncertainty in portfolio production. In short, the portfolio as a whole is more than just the sum of its parts!

This is where our Asset Diversity Factor (ADF) plays a transformative role, turning production variability into an asset rather than a liability.

It’s not just resource variability

Quantifying the Benefit

By harnessing the power of comprehensive renewable asset data, precise meteorological insights, and the cutting edge of data science—including Monte Carlo simulations and Markov chains—alongside contemporary machine learning algorithms, our Asset Diversity Factor delivers a robust and quantitative evaluation of your portfolio’s diversity. Our approach goes beyond merely measuring the overall reduction in uncertainty and exceedance probabilities across your portfolio; we meticulously dissect the individual contributions of each project. This granular analysis empowers you with the knowledge to discern the precise impact that integrating a new asset will have on your renewable energy fleet.

How correlated are your renewable assets?

How will your next wind farm impact portfolio uncertainty?

Contact us to find out.